Don't Panic

This time last year there were rumours swirling around the MotoGP paddock about then Moto3 upstart Jack Miller making the unprecedented leap straight to MotoGP, giving a wide berth to the fortnightly high speed mélange that is the Moto2 class in the process.  Most that weren’t directly involved in the deal thought it foolhardy, not least of all the current crop of MotoGP riders who, with the exception of Cal Crutchlow, uniformly advised against it.

At the time Miller and Alex Marquez were belligerents in a war being fought on all fronts – on track, in the press, on social media and via Moto3 allies as proxies, both with equal numbers of proponents and detractors, allegiances often running along linguistic and cultural familiarity.  At the final round at Valencia Marquez ultimately edged out Miller by two points, after Miller’s mate Danny Kent missed a gear change with four corners to go on the last lap, handing Marquez 3^rd place.

Miller took the win and left for MotoGP, Marquez the championship and Moto2.

So now it is that rumours are once again doing the rounds, only this time it’s Kent’s turn to roll the dice in the game of paddock Snakes and Ladders.  Kent, now 22, who after a largely ineffective 2013 in Moto2 slid back down to the relative comfort of the pointy end of Moto3.

With 10 rounds of the 2015 season gone Kent has won 5 races, one more than Miller at the same point last year and, unlike Miller, has not only finished every race, but has been on the podium at every round with the exception of Le Mans (4^th) and Indianapolis (21^st).  With a 56 point lead and 8 races to go it’s his championship to lose.

It’s a remarkable turnaround for a rider who only last year was contemplating trying to crowdfund a ride in the World Supersport Championship such was the lack of corporate interest in him.

Kent himself hasn’t said anything other than that amongst several Moto2 offers a MotoGP offer for 2016 is ‘on the table’.  Speculation has it that Pramac Ducati are their toes in the water, with Kent potentially replacing Columbian Yonny Hernandez.

If this is the case, should Kent take it?  As with Miller at the same time last year, it depends on who you ask.

The main arguments last year against Miller making the move – that time in Moto2 was needed to become accustomed to a larger and heavier bike, particularly the way that they slide, and that the jump from 50 hp to 250 hp was too much – are being applied to Kent’s situation in the same manner.  However Kent can take heart from Miller’s results this year thus far.  All things considered, it’s been a positive move for the Queenslander.  He’s placed as high as 12^th, that same race being the first Open bike across the line, and at 18^th is currently the highest ranked Open Honda rider in the championship standings.

But unlike Miller, Kent has already had a year on a Moto2 bike.  He’s also similarly sized to Miller (at a towering 173 cm), so presumably will adapt to a MotoGP bike even more easily.

But there are other factors that Kent absolutely must take into account.  Miller’s deal is for three years with Honda Racing Corporation directly and has the backing of Dorna.  So regardless of what others were saying, Miller knew he had a safety net should things not go smoothly early on.  Kent’s potential deal with Pramac Ducati is with the satellite team itself, not with the factory, and is unlikely to be as generous as HRC’s either in time to adjust or remuneration.

Kent also needs to consider that the Ducati is the least docile bike on the MotoGP lot.  Certainly the Boys from Bologna have moved heaven and earth to improve its pliancy, but it’s still a long way off the point and squirt of Miller’s Honda.

So Kent’s move to MotoGP would ostensibly be riskier than Miller’s.  But what are this other options?

There are a number of Moto2 possibilities, including joining the all reigning Marc VDS squad, perhaps in conjunction with his current employer Leopard Racing, and there is something to be said for the reassurance of following the path well traveled.  But such is the depth of talent Moto2 is the racing equivalent of a Royal Rumble: 30-odd men (and a few women) enter, and only a handful leave victorious.

Perhaps we should look at the Moto2 rookies for guidance: Alex Rins, Marquez’s teammate last year and 3^rd place finisher in the 2014 Moto3 championship is going gangbusters.  Currently 2^nd in the championship, he has 5 podium finishes from his first 10 Moto2 races, including a win at Indianapolis.

And Marquez?  Well, he also had his best finish of the year at Indianapolis, cracking the top 10 for the first time.  Currently he sits at 15^th on the championship table.

With the rivalry last year between Marquez and Miller, perhaps we can use this comparison: would you rather be 15^th in Moto2, with names like Rabat, Zarco, Luthi and Lowes - all looking to crack into MotoGP - ahead of you?  Or 18^th in MotoGP, 1.8s off the pace but with time up your sleeve?

In the game of Snakes and Ladders when the opportunity to climb a ladder and leapfrog your opponents you take it.  If I were Danny Kent, I know what I’d do.